CHINA OPTION-AUTOR PhD. Cornel BOCAI
The war in UKRAINE , desired by some (the US in particular) and less so by others (some EU countries) also gives CHINA the choice to get involved or not. In my opinion CHINA would have to choose between three options in the shortest possible time, namely :
To get involved and give military aid to RUSSIA ( not only moral as it did in the recent visit of the Chinese President to Moscow, although such support is encouraging ) i.e. to provide it with more modern weapons and combat technology, constituting in this way a military bloc as a counterpart to the one formed by the USA and the EU ( or more concretely NATO ), which will certainly escalate the conflict given the military potential of the two blocs and given that CHINA is not in favour of using nuclear weapons as stated in the Russian doctrine, which would make PUTIN give up this idea, even if the situation would deteriorate considerably. If CHINA adopts this solution, it is obvious that it will assume all the consequences resulting from the economic sanctions, which will certainly be imposed by the US and some European countries, members of the EU. This will clearly not please the Chinese leadership because it will create great imbalances not only in the Chinese economy but also in the world economy, given its substantial contribution to the production of goods at world level. That is why I believe that CHINA will think and consider the possibility of this option very carefully;
To get involved, but not militarily, but in the sense of trying to stop the war through a mediation between the two belligerents (with or without the consent of the USA) by withdrawing RUSSIA from the conquered territories (it is unlikely that RUSSIA will accept, but perhaps under pressure from CHINA it will do so).Through this option, if taken, CHINA’s position on the world stage will increase enormously, proving to the whole world its capacity for negotiation, good offices, efficiency of diplomacy, power of persuasion in such a conflict. Obviously, this will be a slap in the face for the Americans, who, with their position as world leaders, have not yet succeeded in ending the war and imposing peace (or rather, do not want to). This would make CHINA a truly great power, politically and diplomatically speaking, which would increase its prestige and respect worldwide, demonstrating that it is capable of resolving such a war;
Not to get involved at all (even if it morally supports RUSSIA), which would lead to the prolongation of the war, to the attrition of RUSSIA, to the loss of human lives, to the destruction of material goods, indispensable to life, and to the economic damage to UKRAINE and some EU countries (energy crisis, inflation, refugee crisis, etc.). This situation would somehow be “to the liking” of CHINA, because in the absence of involvement, it would continue its economic development unhindered ( and on the basis of energy resources imported from Russia ) “conquering” new markets and facilities in AFRICA, SE ASIA and why not also in EUROPE” according to the 100-year marathon” aiming for a place in world supremacy. CHINA, as its President has declared, wants to build a “multipolar” world, a “harmonious” world that can ensure global balance and stability in all respects. In theory, CHINA’s wishes sound nice but let’s see how they will be translated into practice.
So, I think that of the three options, it would be desirable for CHINA to choose the second or even the third and not the first. But this is up to the Chinese leadership! Obviously the US would not like either of the first two options, and will do its utmost to keep CHINA out of this war, counting on the fact that no matter how long the war lasts and at what cost, RUSSIA will be defeated and even “ruined”, leaving it time to deal with its other rival CHINA , much more dangerous and probably more prepared for a possible conflict.