Donald Trump’s geopolitical vision. Between pragmatism and provocation– Maritime security forum Analysis
Donald John Trump was born on June 14, 1946, Queens, New York City, USA and became the 46th President of the United States (2017-2021) (2025-2029) as the nominee of the Republican Party.
Businessman, television personality, politician, Donald Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in 1968 with a degree in economics. He took over the business of his father, Fred Trump, which was centered on real estate development, and expanded it under the brand “The Trump Organization”. His projects include hotels, casinos, office buildings and golf courses. Trump became a major public figure thanks to the reality show “The Apprentice” (2004-2015), where he was host and producer. His iconic expression, “You’re fired!”, became famous. Trump has been married to Melania Trump since 2005. They have one son, Barron Trump. He has four other children from previous marriages: Donald Trump Jr, Ivanka Trump, Eric Trump and Tiffany Trump.
Presidency (2017-2021):
- Campaign: Trump won the 2016 election against Hillary Clinton, focusing on messages about immigration, the economy and nationalism.
- Notable policies:
- Tax reform in 2017 that cut taxes for businesses and individuals.
- Tough immigration policies, including building a wall on the Mexican border.
- Protectionist rhetoric in international trade and the renegotiation of trade agreements such as NAFTA (turned USMCA).
- Appointing three conservative justices to the US Supreme Court.
- Controversy: His administration was marked by political polarization, investigations into Russian influence in the election, and the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
As president-elect in 2025, Donald Trump has set the following main priorities:
- Curb inflation and reduce costs: Trump plans to implement economic policies aimed at controlling inflation and reducing the financial burden on American citizens.
- Tax Cuts for Workers: Continuing initiatives from his first term, he is proposing additional tax cuts for the working class to stimulate the economy and increase Americans’ disposable incomes.
- Border Security: Trump has declared a national emergency on the Mexican border and announced tough measures against illegal immigration, including designating drug cartels as terrorist organizations and resuming the “Remain in Mexico” policy.
- Peace through strength: He aims to bolster the armed forces and adopt a foreign policy that deters adversaries by demonstrating US military might.
- US energy dominance: Trump wants to resume fossil fuel exploitation, withdraw from the Paris Agreement and eliminate subsidies for electric vehicles, promoting US energy independence.
- Increasing security in US cities: He has pledged to restore law and order, focusing on reducing crime and keeping citizens safe in urban areas.
These priorities reflect Donald Trump’s commitment to putting “America first” and reversing the policies of the previous administration.
As president-elect in 2025, Donald Trump is promoting a foreign policy centered on the “America First” principle, emphasizing the following main directions:
- Isolationism and withdrawal from international agreements: Trump has initiated the withdrawal of the United States from various international agreements and organizations, such as the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization, arguing that these measures better serve national interests.
- Reevaluating traditional alliances: His administration has voiced dissatisfaction with European allies, particularly within NATO, calling for an increase in their defense spending and suggesting that US defense will depend on financial contributions from partners.
- Ukraine conflict approach: Trump has proposed to negotiate a quick peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, potentially involving territorial concessions from Ukraine. This approach has raised concerns that it could allow Russia to rebuild its military and form alliances with nations such as China, Iran and North Korea.
Trump has repeatedly said he will tell Russia that it can do “whatever the hell it wants” to any Nato member that does not pay its bills. There are now clear concerns about US commitment to the North Atlantic alliance. The Putin problem There was no mention of Russia, Ukraine or Vladimir Putin in Trump’s inaugural address. But given his previous comments on the war, there has been much speculation about his approach to dealing with his Russian counterpart. Trump has said he would reach a peace deal for Ukraine “someday”. But now his administration has admitted that a deal is “months away”. Putin offered Trump the typical congratulations on his inauguration and added: “Moscow is open to dialog with the United States, which will be built on a basis of equality and mutual respect.” But despite a widespread perception that the president-elect would be as deferential to Putin as he appeared to be in 2022, when he said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was “brilliant” and “wise”, Trump has now decided to adopt a completely different tone. Putin, Trump said after his inauguration, is “destroying Russia” with his approach to war. Going further, the US president added: “He can’t be happy, he’s not doing too well. Whether this assessment of Putin’s conduct of the war acts as a roadblock to potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine remains to be seen. Whether or not he keeps this distance from Putin, many of the themes of the second inauguration point to a degree of continuation of Trump’s first term. His aggressive approach to politics and isolationist policies align with what we already knew about Trump. But his first day in office shows how confident and prepared he is in 2025 compared to eight years ago. https://www.econotimes.com/Trump-20-what-we-learned-from-the-47th-US-presidents-first-day-in-office-1699808
- China policy: Donald Trump’s return to the presidency in 2025 has reignited the debate over US-China relations, with his administration unveiling a series of aggressive policies aimed at rebalancing the global economic and political landscape. The former president, known for his tough approach to Beijing, has wasted no time in setting the tone of a contentious relationship, focusing on trade, military tensions and technology competition
Trump has resumed tariffs on Chinese imports and encouraged US companies to diversify their supply chains in a bid to reduce dependence on China and boost domestic production. Trade relations in focus Review of tariffs and supply chains One of Trump’s first moves was the reintroduction of tariffs on Chinese imports, a feature of his previous presidency. This time the focus was on industries critical to national security, such as semiconductors, rare minerals and pharmaceuticals. White House officials say the administration aims to reduce China’s economic dominance while encouraging US companies to diversify supply chains and invest domestically. But critics say the new tariffs could exacerbate inflation and strain global supply chains. A recent analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics warned that the policies could raise costs for US consumers, especially in sectors heavily dependent on Chinese goods. Despite this, Trump’s supporters praise his commitment to holding Beijing accountable, with one social media user declaring, “Finally, a president who puts America first!” Technology decoupling and export controls In addition to tariffs, the Trump administration has expanded export controls on sensitive technologies, including artificial intelligence and quantum computing. The aim is to prevent China from acquiring tools that could strengthen its military and surveillance capabilities. In response, Beijing has accused Washington of economic sabotage, stoking tensions in diplomatic circles. Geopolitical flashpoints: Taiwan and the South China Sea Taiwan policy stirs controversy Trump has also taken a tougher stance on Taiwan, emphasizing military support and promising increased arms sales to the island. While his administration claims the measures are meant to deter Chinese aggression, Beijing sees them as provocations, which has led to increased military exercises near Taiwanese waters. Critics warn that Trump’s approach could risk open conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. However, supporters argue that a tougher US stance is necessary to uphold democratic values and maintain stability in the region. Twitter user @FreedomWatcher tweeted, “Trump isn’t backing down to China, and that’s the strength America needs now.” South China Sea strategy In addition to Taiwan, Trump has stepped up freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea. These maneuvers, conducted by the US Navy, aim to challenge China’s territorial claims and protect international sea lanes. Beijing has condemned the actions as violations of its sovereignty, further straining diplomatic relations.
- Territorial expansion and global influence: Trump has revived the doctrine of “manifest destiny” to justify expansionist policies in regions such as Panama and even Mars, suggesting a new era of global competition, especially with China.
This foreign policy orientation reflects a significant shift from previous approaches, emphasizing national interests and more selective international engagement.
What is his vision for Europe?
As President of the United States in 2025, Donald Trump is maintaining his “America First” approach to relations with Europe, emphasizing the following:
- Trade relations and tariffs: Trump has proposed imposing tariffs of 10-20% on imports, including from the European Union, arguing that such measures are necessary to correct trade imbalances and protect American industries.
- Defense Spending and NATO: His administration has pressured European NATO allies to increase their defense spending, suggesting that the United States should not be the “emergency contact” for Europe.
- Ukraine conflict: Trump has expressed his intention to quickly negotiate a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, raising concerns among Ukrainian supporters about possible territorial concessions.
These policies have prompted European leaders to reassess transatlantic relations and look for ways to strengthen their strategic autonomy. For example, Friedrich Merz, the German opposition leader, has suggested that Europe should develop a unified and strong position in negotiations with Trump, including by combining purchases of US military equipment.
Overall, Donald Trump’s vision for Europe in 2025 reflects a transactional approach, focusing on US national interests and calling on European allies to take greater responsibility in areas such as defense and trade.
Where do European leaders stand on President Trump’s approach?
Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025 has triggered diverse reactions from European leaders, reflecting a combination of caution, willingness to work together and concerns about his policies.
Official reactions and congratulations:
- Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, congratulated Donald Trump and emphasized the importance of the transatlantic partnership, saying, “The EU and the US are more than allies. We are bound by a true partnership between our people that unites 800 million citizens. So let’s work together on a strong transatlantic agenda.”
- Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany, congratulated Trump and emphasized the importance of the transatlantic relationship and the need for US-German cooperation in the years to come.
- Emmanuel Macron, president of France, expressed his willingness to work with the new US administration, saying: “Congratulations, President Donald Trump. Ready to work together as we have known how to do for four years. With your convictions and mine. With respect and ambition. For more peace and prosperity.”
European concerns and strategies:
Ursula von der Leyen, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, emphasized Europe’s readiness to negotiate with the new US administration, noting that the EU will always defend its fundamental values. She emphasized the importance of international cooperation and European integration in the face of new global challenges.
Olaf Scholz recommended a calm and rational approach in dealing with the Trump administration, stressing the need to keep “cool heads” and not to react impulsively to every action or statement. He reaffirmed the importance of preserving the principles of world order and close cooperation between Europe and the United States for global peace and security.
Cadena SEREuropean ministers saw Trump’s return as a wake-up call to improve Europe’s economic competitiveness. They discussed the need to cut red tape and support innovation so as not to fall behind the US and China in key technology areas for a low-carbon economy.
Specific challenges:
France and Germany rejected Trump’s demands to acquire Greenland and increase defense spending to 5% of GDP. The countries’ leaders reaffirmed their support for the defense of Europe’s borders and stressed the need for cooperation based on mutual respect.
Overall, European leaders are taking a balanced stance, combining openness to dialogue and cooperation with a firm defense of European values and interests in the face of the Trump administration’s new policies.
Implications of Donald Trump’s vision for global geopolitics
Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025 is not just a political moment but a turning point in world geopolitical history. In a world already under pressure from climate change, economic rivalries and security challenges, his “America First” philosophy promises to shake the foundations of international cooperation. His approach, marked by cold pragmatism and a desire to reassert American supremacy, has stirred controversy, redefining relations between major powers.
Trump’s vision: pragmatism or polarization?
Donald Trump has demonstrated a transactional vision of international relations, prioritizing US economic and military interests. Under his stewardship, global partnerships have been transformed from strategic alliances into agreements conditional on mutual benefits. NATO, once seen as a pillar of collective security, became a bargaining chip, with European allies forced to increase their military spending to retain American support.
In parallel, economic relations have been reshaped through tariffs and renegotiations, such as the transformation of NAFTA into the USMCA. Tariffs on Chinese and European imports have created a climate of fierce economic competition, while exiting agreements such as the Paris Agreement has isolated the US on the global climate stage[1][2].
Territorial disputes: Greenland and the Panama Canal
A sore point of Trump’s policy is territorial ambitions. The proposed acquisition of Greenland has attracted worldwide attention as an attempt to expand US strategic dominance in the resource-rich Arctic area, which is essential for global trade. At the same time, the idea of renegotiating the terms of the Panama Canal was seen as a reassertion of American influence in the Western Hemisphere[3][4].
Less Greenland and more Panama Perhaps because of this American focus, Trump’s inaugural speech made no mention at all of his idea to control Greenland, but insisted on his promise to “regain” control of the Panama Canal.Although – according to the Panamanian government – it is false that China controls the canal, it was telling that the president devoted a paragraph to the issue in a speech in which he mentioned neither the Asian giant nor the war in Ukraine, his two supposed major foreign policy challenges.
Graham Allison, a professor of national security at Harvard University, predicted Tuesday during a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that Trump will succeed in “taking over the reins of the Panama Canal” and that the Chinese companies now helping to operate it “will be gone.” What seems certain is that Panama will be forced to negotiate the canal with Trump, whose expansionist zeal has been reflected in two other measures taken on his first day in office: the first was the decision to change the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the “Gulf of America”, and the second to remove the indigenous name Barack Obama gave to the country’s highest mountain, Denali, in Alaska. He did so to restore the mountain to its old name, which honored President William McKinley, whom Trump admires precisely for his use of tariffs and his colonialist past. Under McKinley’s leadership – in 1898 – the United States declared war on Spain and seized control of the Philippines, Puerto Rico and Guam from Spain, forcing it to accept Cuba’s independence.
McKinley was also a fervent defender of the doctrine of “manifest destiny”, which nonetheless lost its weight – at least under that name – in the 20th century and which Trump is now rescuing in a context of a loss of US influence on the world stage.
However, it is “a grand illusion” to believe that controlling Canada, the Panama Canal or Greenland would allow the US to “end China’s defiance”, analyst Howard W. French recently wrote in Foreign Policy magazine. Territorial expansion would not change the fact that Beijing has invested “in industrial processes and technologies that will play a decisive role in the future” and could “legitimize Russia’s aggression over Ukraine or China’s claims over Taiwan”, the expert warned.”In short: Pandora’s box is opening,” he concluded.
These initiatives, though controversial, underline the Trump administration’s desire to exploit strategic resources and control key points of global trade. However, they have generated significant diplomatic tensions, straining US relations with allies such as Denmark and Panama.
Unilateralism and its impact on global stability
In an interconnected world, Trump’s unilateralist approach has raised questions about the sustainability of a cooperative world order. Decisions to withdraw from international agreements, combined with isolationist policies, have created a power vacuum that other states, such as China and Russia, have rushed to fill. At the same time, this vacuum has amplified competition for resources and influence, jeopardizing global stability[5][6].
In the Middle East, the reduced US military presence has allowed Iran to expand its influence, while in Asia, support for Taiwan has heightened tensions with China. This dual policy of withdrawal combined with strategic challenges has created a state of uncertainty that continues to shape global alliances.
Possible positions of Donald Trump towards strategic allies in Europe, including Romania
Donald Trump’s stance towards strategic allies in Europe, including Romania, is likely to be defined by his transactional approach, centered on economic and security interests. During his first term and in his subsequent speeches, Trump has emphasized several general principles applicable to relations with European allies, including Romania:
NATO contributions
Trump has been a vocal critic of NATO countries that do not allocate at least 2% of GDP to defense. Romania, as one of the few countries that meet this commitment, is likely to be viewed more favorably. Trump could, however, encourage further defense budget increases and investment in modern military technologies, especially in the context of tensions with Russia.
US military presence in Romania
The air base at Mihail Kogălniceanu and the missile defense system at Deveselu make Romania a strategic ally for the US on NATO’s eastern flank. Trump could support the strengthening of the US military presence in Romania, but is likely to condition this support on new financial commitments or logistical contributions from Romania.
Economic and energy relations
Trump has advocated diversification of energy sources to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. Romania, with its natural gas reserves in the Black Sea, is seen as a key partner in this strategy. The Trump administration could encourage US investment in Romania’s energy sector, but could also demand economic or trade concessions in return for support.
Romania’s strategic position
Located at the crossroads between Central Europe and the Balkans, Romania is important for US plans to deter Russian influence and for the security of the Black Sea region. In this context, Trump could support initiatives that strengthen Romania’s defense capabilities, such as the deployment of additional troops or joint military exercises.
Symbolism and redefining American identity
The proposal to rename the Gulf of Mexico reflects a desire to symbolically reaffirm American hegemony. While this gesture may seem minor, it represents a powerful political statement about the US position in the Western hemisphere. The symbolism of these decisions underscores the nationalism that characterizes Trump’s vision, but raises questions about the long-term effects on international relations[7].
5. Rhetoric and political pragmatism
Trump may have clearer and firmer expectations from allies, including Romania. He is likely to insist on a more balanced partnership, asking Romania to play a more active role in regional initiatives and to contribute financially to joint projects. Trump’s stance towards Romania is likely to be positive, given the country’s contribution to NATO and its strategic role. However, the relationship will be marked by conditionalities and higher demands, both in terms of defense spending and economic investment. Overall, Romania has a good chance of maintaining its status as a strategic partner of the US in the region, but it will have to be prepared to take on more responsibilities to meet the expectations of a pragmatic Trump administration.
Conclusion: Between pragmatism and defiance
Donald Trump’s geopolitical vision, while ambitious, polarizes the world. While short-term economic and military promises have brought domestic benefits, the long-term costs to global stability are significant. In a world where cooperation is essential to address common challenges, Trump’s unilateral and transactional approach risks undermining international norms and institutions.
Yet this vision forces allies and adversaries to adapt, recalibrate their strategies, and innovate in diplomatic relations. As the world confronts this new reality, the future of the world order remains uncertain, shaped by the tensions and opportunities created by Trump’s polarizing vision.
Footnotes and bibliography
- Tax reform and economic policy: the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, 2017, congress.gov.
- Energy policies and withdrawal from the Paris Agreement: “Executive Order 13783,” 2017, federalregister.gov.
- Greenland and territorial ambitions: Time analysis, 2025, time.com.
- Panama Canal and US influence: US Congress report, 2025.
- US-China trade tensions: ‘Section 301 Tariff Actions’, USTR, ustr.gov.
- Impact on NATO and Transatlantic Relations: NATO Statements, 2018, nato.int.
- Gulf of Mexico and Nationalist Symbolism: “America First Policies,” 2025, whitehouse.gov.
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